In summary

• Our forecast for the 2026 UK housing market has been updated to reflect the latest market conditions
• House price trends continue to vary significantly by region 
• Affordability, mortgage rates and wider economic conditions remain key drivers of buyer demand 
• We’ll share our 2027 house price forecast before the end of the year 

Since publishing our original forecast in December 2025, market conditions have changed.  

Our revised forecast is that average UK house prices could fall by up to 2% by the end of 2026. Our August 2026 House Price Index showed that average asking prices were 1% lower than in the same period in 2025. This is a national forecast, and actual movements will vary by location. 

The biggest factors influencing our updated outlook are: 

• Changes in
• The potential impact of the Budget, due to be released at the end of October 
• Unexpected global events having a knock-on effect on things like mortgage rates 

Quoted in our August 2026 House Price Index, our property expert, Colleen Babcock, said: “The first half of 2026 was more challenging for the housing market than many predicted, with the unexpected war in Iran contributing to higher mortgage rates and greater uncertainty for buyers. Pricing remains critical, and it’s remarkable that nearly three-quarters of homes that have sold so far this year have done so without needing an asking price reduction.” 

For the latest monthly market data, you can check our most recent . 

This forecast was updated in September 2026. The original December 2025 forecast is included later in this article, which reflected the market conditions towards the end of 2025. 

What could happen to house prices in 2026?

The housing market has continued to evolve throughout 2026. While some regions have remained resilient, others have seen slower activity. For example, Scotland and the north of England have seen house prices grow year on year (House Price Index, August 2026), while London and the south of England have seen average house prices fall. The same data shows London currently has the largest choice of homes available to buy since 2010, which means sellers are having to price their homes attractively in order to tempt buyers. 

Our September 2026 prediction is that house prices could change between 0 and -2% by the end of the year. But this will be a national average, rather than indicative of what’s happening in your local area. 

What’s happening to house prices in my area?

You can check the achieved sold prices of homes in your area using our , and find out the latest price trends for the area you live in. 

And if you’re looking to get an idea of what your own home could be worth, you can get an Instant Valuation for free on Rightmove. 

Mortgage rates

Mortgage rates continue to have a direct impact on buyer demand. 

By far the biggest driver of house price changes we’re seeing right now depends on the affordability of homes in the local area. Areas with lower house prices on average – where properties might be within reach for more buyers in terms of – are proving more resilient in terms of house price growth. While higher priced areas, such as London and the south east, are seeing declines overall. 

Supply and demand

Areas with stronger demand and lower stock levels generally tend to see house prices hold steadier than locations where buyers have more choice. This can be due to buyers having more options available, and hence more room for them to negotiate on price. 

What does this mean for first-time buyers?

First-time buyers continue to face challenges, but opportunities remain available in many parts of the country. 

Affordability, mortgage availability and the level of housing supply all play an important role in determining how easy it is to get on the property ladder. 

Our property expert, Colleen, adds: “The biggest obstacle for many first-time buyers is still saving a deposit, but once that’s in place, the picture is becoming more encouraging. Buyers currently have a wide choice of homes (Rightmove House Price Index, August 2026), affordability conditions have improved on account of lenders making changes to affordability criteria*, and wages have grown faster than house prices** in many parts of the country, creating opportunities for those ready to take their first step onto the property ladder.” 

Those considering a move may wish to compare mortgage products carefully, consider the associated costs and risks, and keep an eye on what is happening in their local market.

What does this mean for sellers?

For sellers, realistic pricing remains one of the most important factors in achieving a successful sale. 

Buyers often have access to substantial market information and a wide choice of homes, making accurate pricing and strong presentation increasingly important.

Understanding local demand and comparable sales can help sellers set expectations and plan their move, as well as taking the guidance of local estate agents, who’ll have in-depth knowledge of your local market. 

What could happen to mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates remain closely linked to wider economic conditions. 

Future movements will depend on factors such as inflation, interest rate decisions and lender competition, as well as wider economic events that can impact the cost of borrowing for mortgage lenders.  

If you’re planning a move, it’s worth keeping up to date with the latest , as well as speaking to a . 

Our original December 2025 forecast

When we published this article in December 2025, we forecast that UK asking prices would rise by 2% during 2026. 

This prediction reflected the market data and economic outlook at the time. 

As market conditions changed during 2026, we reviewed our forecast and published the updated outlook shown above. 

Sharing both forecasts helps show how the market has changed over the year and gives a clearer picture of what’s shaping our analysis. As well as looking at trends in the housing market nationally, remember you can also check the estimated value of your own home instantly and for free by getting an Instant Valuation.  

An Instant Valuation is an estimate based on available property and market data. It is not a formal valuation, and the price your property achieves may differ. This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial or property advice. Property-market conditions vary by location, property type, and individual circumstances. Asking prices are not the same as achieved sale prices, and past trends and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future outcomes. Speak to a local estate agent for guidance specific to your property. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage. 

Review of loan-to-value limit flow rule, Bank of England,Average wage growth, Office for National Statistics